Tuesday, April 12, 2011

www.opisretail.com/pdf/RFW_Sample.pdf

www.opisretail.com/pdf/RFW_Sample.pdf

Gasoline Supplies Drop Sharply

or most of 2011 market analysis has focused on unrest
in the Middle East to justify the huge spike in oil prices. Threats
to supply in that region have vaulted West Texas crude to
over $105/bbl and allowed NYMEX gasoline and heating
oil futures contracts to hover around the $3/gal number.
Pushed to the background has been any concise analysis
of supply/demand fundamentals and their influence on prices.
The superficial view is that world oil supplies are plentiful
and that demand has flattened because of high prices.
A closer look at this week's Department of Energy data
reveals a disturbing trend for gasoline inventory levels in
America. Based on the data, one can persuasively argue that
oil prices could be high absent the extra sway from events in
Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
A critical shift has taken place in the gasoline supply picture in the U.S., one that is supportive of prices. Continued on Page 12
Date Retail Net Rack Margin %Profit Retail Net Rack Margin %Profit
1 /3 306.3 261.3 246.1 15 .2 5 .0% 331.4 276 .8 258 .4 18 .5 5.6%
1/10 307.4 262.3 247.2 15 .1 4 .9% 332.7 278 .1 257 .5 20 .6 6.2%
1/17 308.4 263.4 250.1 13 .3 4 .3% 336.2 281 .5 268 .9 12 .6 3.7%
1/24 310.4 265.3 249.9 15 .4 5 .0% 341.0 286 .3 271 .3 14 .9 4.4%
1/31 309.2 264.1 247.0 17 .0 5 .5% 342.4 287 .6 272 .0 15 .5 4.5%
2 /7 311.5 266.3 251.1 15 .2 4 .9% 347.7 292 .6 281 .0 11 .6 3.3%
2/14 312.5 267.3 253.1 14 .1 4 .5% 352.1 297 .1 281 .5 15 .6 4.4%
2/21 315.9 270.7 258.7 12 .0 3 .8% 355.4 300 .5 284 .9 15 .6 4.4%
2/28 330.6 285.4 275.3 10 .1 3 .1% 365.9 310 .9 299 .1 11 .8 3.2%
3 /7 347.6 302.1 290.9 11 .2 3 .2% 383.3 327 .9 317 .9 10 .0 2.6%
3/14 354.7 309.1 293.3 15 .7 4 .4% 392.1 336 .5 318 .8 17 .7 4.5%
3/21 354.7 309.1 289.3 19 .8 5 .6% 393.2 337 .6 318 .6 19 .1 4.9%
GASOLINE DIESEL
18
24.7
29
2
2
2
26.8
18.2
22.9
13.2
13
15.2
7.1
7.9
15.9
13
19.8
15.9
22.3
19.8
21.8
22.5
22.1
19.6
18.2
12.8
15.6
11.6
20
20.1
22.4
20.2
22.2
20.4
21.2
27.6 21.7
22.7
22.8
15.6
-14
24.5
25.6
28.4 24.8
22.9
24.7
23.3
30.8
21.4
19.9
9.9
Gasoline Avg
22.8 to 30.9 (16)
19.7 to 22.8 (17)
-14 to 19.7 (17)
14.1
12.0 12.0
15.7
19.8
Current Week Ago Month Ago Current 30-Day
Rolling
Year-Ago 30-Day
Rolling
5
15
25
35
45
29 3/
19 4/
10 5/
31 5/
6/21
7/12
2 8/
8/23
9/13
/4 10
10/25
11/15
6 12/
12/27
1/17
7 2/
2/28
3/21
Diesel Marg ins
Gaso line Ma rg ins
12-Week National Fuel Price Trend
State-By-State Rack-To-Retail
Gasoline Margins
in cts per gal
in cts per gal in cts per gal
Retail = average retail price; Net = retail price less state, federal and local taxes and 1.5
cts per gal for freight; Rack = wholesale cost; Margin = difference between net and rack
DOE shows national gasoline supplies dropping 5.3
million barrels on the week, a sharp decline. More critical,
U.S. gasoline stocks are now 762,000 barrels below the fiveyear average. That's a stark shift from a 26.3 million barrel
surplus to the five-year average at the end of August.
Bottom line: gasoline inventories relative to a five-year average have shrunk at a rate of 4-million barrels per month since
August. Supplies are now almost 5-million barrels behind yearago numbers.
The gasoline supply picture is part of a bigger landscape. In
August, total U.S. product inventories were 65.2 million barrels
ahead of the five-year average. That number has now dwindled
to less than 14 million barrels based on the latest DOE count.
Demand has played just a minor role in the slide in nationwide gasoline supplies

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